Climate change will redraw the world wine map

Climate change is causing the decline of traditional vineyards but opening up new opportunities in others. Researchers have mapped how the landscape of the world’s wine regions could change.

While about 90% of coastal and lowland areas in Europe and California could lose the ability to produce wine productively, other areas such as British Columbia in Canada and Washington state could benefit.

Researchers from French scientific institutions – INRAE ​​(French National Institute for Agricultural, Food and Environmental Research), Bordeaux Sciences Agro, CNRS (National Centre for Scientific Research), the University of Bordeaux and the University of Bourgogne – have teamed up to create a map of the future of wine production. They conclude that, on every continent, ‘there will be winners and losers’.

Switching wine regions

Today’s wine-growing regions are mainly located in mid-latitudes (the US state of California; southern France; northern Spain and Italy; Australia’s Barossa; South Africa’s Stellenbosch; and Argentina’s Mendoza, among others), where the climate is warm enough to allow ripening of grapes but not too hot and relatively dry (minimizing disease susceptibility).

But changes are already being seen: harvests in most vineyards now start two to three weeks earlier than they did 40 years ago, with implications for grapes and winemaking (In France – where records have been kept for centuries – scientists have been able to track climate change through grape harvest dates dating back to 1354).

In the oldest wine-growing regions, the conditions suitable for winemaking are likely to change even more dramatically in the 21st century. In fact, 90% of the traditional wine-producing regions in the coastal and lowland regions of Spain, Italy, Greece and southern California are at risk of disappearing by the end of the century because of excessive drought and frequent heat waves, with “huge negative economic and social consequences.”

But warmer temperatures could make other areas more suitable for growing wine grapes. Britain has benefited from the wine boom: the area of ​​vineyards across the UK has increased by 74% in the past five years, according to WineGB. Viticulture now represents one of the UK’s fastest growing agricultural sectors.

Other regions that will become increasingly prosperous for wine include Washington and Oregon in the US, Tasmania in Australia and the northern regions of France. Vineyards in Argentina will have to move south to Patagonia, and vineyards in Ecuador and Colombia in the Andes will have to move higher.

The researchers looked at two scenarios: one with a 2°C temperature rise and a higher warming scenario with a rise of up to 4°C, and looked at how wine-producing regions might change over the course of the 21st century.

Globally, around 25% of current wine-producing regions could benefit from limiting temperature increases to 2°C and around 26% could potentially maintain production with appropriate management measures.

“This means that global warming below 2°C could be considered a safe threshold for more than half of traditional vineyards,” the researchers note.

Conversely, if temperatures rise beyond 2°C, 70% of current wine-producing regions could lose their suitability for growing grapes. Specifically, 29% could experience climate conditions too harsh to produce premium wines, while the future of the remaining 41% will depend on the feasibility of effective adaptation measures.

North America: California shakes

North American wine production (about 10% of global production) is currently concentrated in California, including the famous Napa Valley. But the area actually suitable for wine production in California could shrink by as much as 50% by the end of the 21st century.

Moderate global warming will still keep California’s coastal regions well-suited to producing quality wines. But winemakers here will face increased risks of drought, heat and wildfires.

If global warming exceeds 2°C, coastal California will become too warm and arid to grow grapes, potentially leading to a decline in wine quality and productivity.

California’s inland regions are even more sensitive and could see problems sooner. Southern California – which is characterized by a warm, dry climate – is predicted to become unsuitable for producing high-quality wines as global warming exceeds 2°C.​

But northern wine regions, such as British Columbia, Washington state, Oregon, the Great Lakes and New England… have increased potential for premium wine production due to the transition from cool to moderate (or even warm) climates suitable for growing grapes.

But it is important to note that this is only true for a maximum temperature increase of 2°C: if this threshold is exceeded, the risk of heat waves and disease pressure (especially in these humid regions) increases.

Europe: Shift from Mediterranean to Atlantic

Spain, France, Italy and Germany account for half of global wine production. Low levels of global warming (<2°C) would allow most traditional wine regions to continue producing, although they would have to undertake some adaptation measures (especially in southern Europe).

Under more severe warming scenarios, most Mediterranean regions risk becoming unsuitable for wine production and the only solution to keeping vineyards below 45° N latitudes is to relocate to higher altitudes.

But 90% of traditional wine-producing regions in the lowlands and coastal regions of Spain, Italy and Greece are at risk of disappearing by the end of the century. Theoretically, only a small part of this loss (less than 20%) could be offset by moving vineyards into the mountains (up to 1,000 m).

Overall, the suitable surface area of ​​traditional wine-producing regions is expected to decrease by 20–70% by the end of this century, depending on the severity of global warming scenarios.

New wine regions are expected to expand northwards, particularly along the Atlantic coast, resulting in a net increase in climate-appropriate areas in Europe of up to 60%.

Africa and Asia currently have low levels of wine production (3.8% and 3.5% respectively). Potential emerging wine regions in Africa include the Kenyan highlands and Ethiopia, where the wine industry is in its early stages of development. In Asia, potential emerging regions include the Anatolian Peninsula and the Pamir-Himalayan Mountains.

Overall, depending on the level of global warming, up to 65% of Australia’s traditional vineyards could become climatically unsuitable, while New Zealand’s wine regions have the potential to expand by 15–60% by the end of the century.

Learn to adapt

The key question will be how fast and to what extent the changes occur – this depends on how much the temperature increases.

And the researchers admit that some of their forecasts may be quite pessimistic, because they don’t take into account the ability of growers to adapt to changing conditions.

Existing wine regions can adapt to some degree of warming by changing their grape varieties and vineyard management.

Wine quality is very sensitive to temperature during grape ripening. This is because changing weather patterns can alter the flavor, aroma, and quality of a wine (low temperatures during grape ripening often result in green and acidic wines, while high temperatures result in high alcohol and low acidity, with aromas of cooked fruit rather than fresh fruit).

And while research is exploring the potential for new wine regions, they need to be created in an environmentally friendly way. Wildlife habitats can be threatened when farmers clear land for vineyards; and even converting existing farmland to grapes means less arable land available for food production. If new vineyards are irrigated, this will increase competition for freshwater resources.