Vehicle Emissions Expected to Peak in 2025

Global CO₂ emissions from road transportation may reach their peak this year thanks to the rapid growth of electric vehicles and the introduction of stricter environmental regulations.

On January 14, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) — a Germany-based research organization — announced that global CO₂ emissions from road transport could peak this year, driven by fast-rising electric-vehicle adoption and tightening regulatory frameworks.

ICCT estimates that vehicle emissions will peak at roughly 9 gigatons in 2025 — a quarter-century earlier than previously projected. Based on environmental regulations in place as of August 2024, the organization predicts emissions will then decline to 7.1 gigatons by 2050.

Vehicle emissions expected to peak in 2025

Previously, using regulations from 2021, ICCT projected that global road-transport emissions would not peak until 2050. The organization attributes this dramatic shift to regulatory changes in major markets that require higher shares of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), including battery-electric cars, in new-vehicle sales. In addition, falling ZEV costs have contributed to a greater number of zero-emission vehicles on the road.

However, ICCT warns that weakening environmental standards for road transportation could delay the peak. The situation in the European Union (EU) is a key example. Although the EU has agreed to ban sales of new gasoline and diesel vehicles starting in 2035, the plan faces resistance from an automotive industry struggling with multiple challenges. Furthermore, higher vehicle usage or declining ZEV sales could also postpone the emissions peak.

In its study, ICCT accounted for all emissions associated with road transportation, including vehicle manufacturing and fuel consumption. Although ICCT’s projections show a significant decline in emissions by 2050, levels would still need to fall further — to 2.3 gigatons — to align with the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. The agreement aims to keep global temperature increases well below 2°C, and ideally 1.5°C, compared with pre-industrial levels.